Research inputs
9 hand-curated catalogue rows · NUMBERS v2.1 (V24 change-note pending two-sig per R7g) · ARCHETYPES cohort enum · regions.ts DNO topology
INDICATIVE PROTOTYPE · figures pending NUMBERS v2.2 sign-off · internal — not for external release
Plane C · CLF TrackerConsumer-led flexibility tracker · neutral measurement infrastructureConsumer-Led Flexibility tracker · CLF 2509 evidence
Scoping question
Against the UKRI 10–12 GW Consumer-Led Flexibility mission — what is achievable, designed, coordinated, and delivered today?
Method
Achievable + Designed cells modelled on open / synthetic data, evidence-rung labelled. Coordinated + Delivered cells gated to P1 — partner data required (no DFS-enrolment proxying).
Against the UKRI 10–12 GW Consumer-Led Flexibility mission
The UK's consumer-flex wedge — traced, every figure cited.
Achievable → Designed → Coordinated → Delivered, per product, per cohort. Open-data and modelled today; partner-attested tomorrow. Coordinated and Delivered cells render as [gated to P1] until partner data lights them up — never proxied from DFS-enrolment counts.
12 GW
UKRI CLF 2509 mission target (upper bound of NESO 10–12 GW range)
[baselines.clf_clm_mission_target_gw]
9
catalogue rows in P0 · NUMBERS v2.1 (V24 change-note pending two-sig per R7g)
[clf.* keys pending two-sig]
0.15–2.2 GW
achievable row-span across 9 catalogue rows (lowest row low – highest row high, never summed — F7) · modelled, evidence-rung labelled per row
[NEEDS-KEY: row-span derivation]
Per-cohort funnel — Achievable → Delivered
Gentailer · retail-led flex · 5 rows
Achievable
0.3–2.2 GW row-span
row-span over 5 catalogue rows — keys cited per row below · never summed (F7) · modelled, rung-labelled per row
Designed
[NEEDS-KEY]
designed-state bands await NUMBERS keys (none in v2.1 or the V24 change-note) · in active product / pilot backlog
Coordinated
gated to P1
partner data required (F-CLF-3)
Delivered
gated to P1
partner data required (F-CLF-3)
Pure-play aggregator · VPP + V2G · 2 rows
Achievable
0.15–1.0 GW row-span
row-span over 2 catalogue rows — keys cited per row below · never summed (F7) · modelled, rung-labelled per row
Designed
[NEEDS-KEY]
designed-state bands await NUMBERS keys (none in v2.1 or the V24 change-note) · in active product / pilot backlog
Coordinated
gated to P1
partner data required (F-CLF-3)
Delivered
gated to P1
partner data required (F-CLF-3)
C&I / B2B retailer · depot + behind-the-meter · 1 row
Achievable
0.6–2.0 GW row-span
row-span over 1 catalogue row — keys cited per row below · never summed (F7) · modelled, rung-labelled per row
Designed
[NEEDS-KEY]
designed-state bands await NUMBERS keys (none in v2.1 or the V24 change-note) · in active product / pilot backlog
Coordinated
gated to P1
partner data required (F-CLF-3)
Delivered
gated to P1
partner data required (F-CLF-3)
Network operator · DNO / DSO / ESO · 1 row
Achievable
0.4–1.6 GW row-span
row-span over 1 catalogue row — keys cited per row below · never summed (F7) · modelled, rung-labelled per row
Designed
[NEEDS-KEY]
designed-state bands await NUMBERS keys (none in v2.1 or the V24 change-note) · in active product / pilot backlog
Coordinated
gated to P1
partner data required (F-CLF-3)
Delivered
gated to P1
partner data required (F-CLF-3)
CLF catalogue
9 rows · NUMBERS v2.1 (V24 change-note pending two-sig per R7g) · cert 603ebf36| Product / row | Archetype | GW band | Evidence rung | State (A · D · C · D) | NUMBERS keys |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Model A · EV TOU tariff backtest cohort: gentailer · pool: cust · regions: 6 | gentailer | 0.8–2.2 GW[clf.model_a_ev_tou_achievable_gw] | L2-modelled | modelledmodelledgatedgated | 4 keys |
Smart EV tariff (whole-home shifting) cohort: gentailer · pool: cust · regions: 6 | gentailer | 0.5–1.8 GW[clf.smart_ev_tariff_achievable_gw] | L2-modelled | modelledmodelledgatedgated | 3 keys |
Heat-pump load-shift cohort: gentailer · pool: flex · regions: 4 | gentailer | 0.3–1.2 GW[clf.heat_pump_load_shift_achievable_gw] | L2-modelled | modelledmodelledgatedgated | 2 keys |
V2G (vehicle-to-grid) cohort: pureplay_aggregator · pool: flex · regions: 3 | pureplay_aggregator | 0.2–1 GW[clf.v2g_achievable_gw] | L2-modelled | modelledmodelledgatedgated | 3 keys |
Retail BESS (home batteries) cohort: gentailer · pool: flex · regions: 6 | gentailer | 0.3–1.1 GW[clf.retail_bess_achievable_gw] | L2-modelled | modelledmodelledgatedgated | 3 keys |
Model B · C&I depot flex cohort: ci_retailer · pool: flex · regions: 5 | ci_retailer | 0.6–2 GW[clf.model_b_ci_depot_achievable_gw] | L2-modelled | modelledmodelledgatedgated | 3 keys |
Model C · AMM (Active Managed Microgrid) cohort: network_dno_dso_eso · pool: flex · regions: 6 | network_dno_dso_eso | 0.4–1.6 GW[clf.model_c_amm_achievable_gw] | L2-modelled | modelledmodelledgatedgated | 5 keys |
CrowdFlex-style VPP cohort: pureplay_aggregator · pool: flex · regions: 6 | pureplay_aggregator | 0.15–0.5 GW[clf.crowdflex_vpp_achievable_gw] | L2-modelled | modelledmodelledgatedgated | 3 keys |
DFS retail saving sessions cohort: gentailer · pool: cust · regions: 6 | gentailer | 0.5–1.5 GW[clf.dfs_retail_saving_sessions_achievable_gw] | L2-modelled | modelledmodelledgatedgated | 4 keys |
Per-region playbooks · P1 stub
Per-DNO playbooks compose the catalogue's regionFit tagging with the Pilot Map's regions.ts per-DNO context. P0 ships qualitative tagging only (9 rows cover up to 6 GB DNO areas + the NESO national overlay); per-region drill views (and confidence timeline sparklines) land in P1 once at least one Coordinated cell can be populated with partner-attested measured data.
Blue · what this tracker measures
What is in scope
The UK's consumer-led flexibility wedge against the 10–12 GW mission, decomposed by product and cohort. Every figure traces to a NUMBERS.yaml key (bracket-section-dot-key form) in 60 seconds or renders as [NEEDS-KEY] prose. The quarterly brief is the human-curated snapshot a UKRI assessor reads.
Achievable + Designed lit by open / synthetic data, evidence-rung labelled per row.
Ochre · what this tracker does NOT claim
What is gated
We do not claim a per-DNO £ savings figure (F1). We do not aggregate single-customer pound values across the customer base (F-CLF-2 / F7) — the household-average band is the only £ value that renders unaccompanied. We do not substitute DFS-enrolment counts into Coordinated or Delivered cells (F-CLF-3). We do not claim bias is neutralised — only that it is prevented in execution and data-in-use.
Coordinated + Delivered light up in P1 with partner-attested measured data — never proxied.
Confidence progression · P1 timeline
Per-row confidence sparklines (Achievable → Coordinated promotion over quarters) are a P1 follow. P0 records each row's current evidence rung in the catalogue table above; the quarterly brief diff section snapshots rung upgrades between quarters.
Methodology + sources
Sources by category (no URLs per L4 ban on the UKRI bid path): NESO Clean Power 2030 pathway · NESO Clean Flexibility Roadmap (23 Jul 2025 [regulatory.clean_flexibility_roadmap_date]) · NESO Demand Flexibility Service utilisation reports (2022/23, 2023/24, 2025/26) · NESO CrowdFlex project summary · Octopus Energy Saving Sessions results (winter 2023/24) · UKRI CLF 2509 competition (closes 26 Aug 2026 [regulatory.clf_competition_close]) · Elexon BSC Modification P483 (live 27 Nov 2025 [regulatory.p483_implementation_date]) · Ofgem MHHS programme milestones (CR055, CR061) · DESNZ Clean Power 2030 Action Plan (Jan 2025) · CSIRO peer-reviewed AMM trial result (33 LV feeders [paper_results.csiro_network_mv_feeders]; GB replication target Q3 2026). Per-source F1 framing recorded in RESEARCH_CLF_TRACKER.md §5; the AI explain-row endpoint encodes the same rails verbatim per DESIGN_CLF_TRACKER.md §8.
0.15–2.2 GW achievable row-span across 9 catalogue rows (lowest row low – highest row high, never a numeric aggregate — F7), against the UKRI 12 GW consumer-led-flex mission target [baselines.clf_clm_mission_target_gw] — modelled, evidence-rung labelled, Coordinated + Delivered gated to P1.
Neutral measurement infrastructure · cert 603ebf36 · 2026-Q3 · INDICATIVE PROTOTYPE · enleashed