Research inputs
REMA reform package (TNUoS, constraint pricing) · Ofgem consumer-vulnerability segments · scarcity-pricing distributional studies.
INDICATIVE PROTOTYPE · figures pending NUMBERS v2.2 sign-off · internal — not for external release
Plane B · policyWho pays
under scarcity
under scarcity
Scoping question
When scarcity is priced, who actually pays — and can a rule be kept fair before it is mandated?
Method
Backtest a tariff design against Elexon-shaped scenarios, then drag a scarcity rule and watch the distributional impact across six consumer segments.
Plane B · regulator sandbox · shadow-mode
Test the rule. Watch who pays.
An efficient scarcity price and a fair one can look identical on a spreadsheet — until you see where the cost lands. First backtest a tariff against Elexon-shaped price weeks, then drag the scarcity curve and watch the bill impact ripple across six consumer segments. The point: test the distributional effect before the rule is mandated, not after it hits bills. Coordination-correctness only — no live dispatch, the grid is never touched. indicative · synthetic cohort
Step 1 · product backtester
Test a tariff before you launch it.
Design the product
Product
Price week typical
Off-peak window 6 h
Off-peak rate 9 p/kWh
Smart-charging shift 70%
peak rate 35p · baseline: standard variable 30p flat
Customer benefit
£539
per year vs standard variable
Supplier margin
£132
per customer / year vs wholesale
Verdict
Fair & viable
80% to customer
£539
EV-tariff customer £ / yr
per-customer · indicative · synthetic cohort
80%
of value to customer
rest = supplier margin
Fair & viable
fair-&-viable verdict
shadow-mode · grid untouched
What this does & doesn't say: the headline is an EV-tariff (or selected-segment) customerbenefit — not a whole-population or average-household figure. Prices are Elexon-shaped scenarios on a synthetic cohort, in shadow mode; no real customer is enrolled and the grid is never touched. Coordination-correctness only — never a GB curtailment magnitude [NEEDS-KEY].
Session backtest ledger · this is the throughput0 / 60 a week · ·
No runs yet — set a product and hit ▶ Run backtest.
Step 2 · distributional model
Drag the rule. Watch who pays.
Design the rule
Scarcity-price intensity 70%
Cost allocation
Vulnerable bill-rise cap 0%
Recycle scarcity revenue
The scarcity rule · price across the day↕ drag the curve to set intensity
Progressivity verdict
Regressive
low-income carry more of the burden
Hit hardest
Vulnerable / medical
+£332 / yr
Scarcity revenue raised
£184/cust
per year, across the population
Consumer segmentbill change per year
Vulnerable / medical ◆can't shift · protected
+£332
Fuel-poor / prepayment ◆high peak load · low income
+£301
Low-income workingsome flexibility
+£198
Median householdthe baseline
+£145
Rural · electric heathigh load, hard to shift
+£221
Affluent · EV + solarshifts & exports
+£54
← better offno changeworse off →
£/yr
Regressive. This rule raises £332/yr on Vulnerable / medical who can't shift, while affluent EV+solar homes barely move. Efficient on paper — but it would land hardest on those least able to pay. → Try Protect-vulnerable + a rebate. Coordination-correctness only — never a GB curtailment magnitude [NEEDS-KEY].
Run this on your population.
Send anonymised consumer segments and price scenarios → a shadow-mode replication on your real population. Two-signature firewall before any external release.
What this is & isn't: a shadow-mode backtester and distributional model on illustrative, anonymised consumer segments — not a forecast of any specific household's bill, and not a live policy. It tests who-pays before a rule is mandated; Enleashed consumes signals and never sets prices or operates the grid. Segment profiles and £ impacts are indicative, pending NUMBERS v2.2 sign-off; grounded in the REMA reform package & Ofgem vulnerability categories.