Open-methods view · public synthetic data · open methods · no account needed
enleashed UK
Sandbox · shadow-mode · not a supplier, aggregator or trading screen — the missing coordination layer.
INDICATIVE PROTOTYPE · figures pending NUMBERS v2.2 sign-off · internal — not for external release
UKRI CLF Attainment · neutral measurement facility · v0.1UK Clean-Flexibility Attainment · Open Methods · v0.1

Of the UK's 10–12 GW consumer-flex target — what's actually being delivered?

A public funnel: achievable → designed → coordinated → delivered. Every figure sourced. Synthetic where modelled, attested where real, measured where it lands. We don't claim what we can't show.

The gap that makes the case
2.46M
MPANs registered in DFS (Mar 2026)
[baselines.dfs_2526_registered_mpans]
~6 GW
capacity registered (winter 2023/24)
[baselines.dfs_2324_registered_gw]
orders of magnitude
gap between registered and actually dispatched through winter — the bottleneck this architecture is designed to close

DFS is a nascent service. Enrolment scaled to 2.46M MPANs · ~6 GW registered capacity; the volume actually called on through a typical winter season is far smaller. The work isn't to enrol more — it's to make the rules under which assets get dispatched legible, fair, and testable in shadow before they're live. Source: NESO Demand Flexibility Service utilisation reports.

DNO region
Feeder type
Rule preset

baseline = copper-plate (no coordination). Dial selections cycle a pre-computed scenario snapshot; live kernel computation lands in P1.

Target · 2030 missionH
12 GW
UKRI CLF 2509 · upper bound of NESO 10–12 GW range
modelled
Achievable on today's assetsM
0.3–0.9 GW
RAISE pathway · 3 design partners × 2 product lines × 50–150 MW each
synthetic
Designed (rule-sets live)H
~50 actions
Clean Flexibility Roadmap, 23 Jul 2025
modelled
Coordinated (DFS enrolment)M
~6 GW
2.46M MPANs registered (Mar 2026)
modelled
Delivered (DFS payments proxy)L
~£6.5M (2023/24)
payments to participants · proxy for activation; precise MWh keyed in v2.2
measured
cohort · SSEN HV4 cluster · Residential · Confidence + fair (RAISE)achievable → designed → coordinated → delivered
achievable
4.6 GW · [synthetic]
designed
3.2 GW (70%) · [modelled]
coordinated
— [gated to P1]
delivered
— [gated to P1]

COORDINATED + DELIVERED render as placeholders in this MVP. They light up in P1 with confidential-compute aggregate from partner data (attested) and shadow-mode forecast-vs-activation deltas (measured). We don't fake what we can't measure.

Blue · policy lens

Who pays under scarcity

Distribution outcome: shows who bears the cost under the chosen rule preset vs the copper-plate baseline. Fairness state: Jain index band per cohort. Skip-parity audit: who gets called on disproportionately (qualitative in P0).

P1: lights up with attested partner data + settlement-grade audit.
Ochre · market lens

Who earns fairly

Settlement integrity: the rule-set passes the gaming-resistance gate before it can recommend anything. Value-stack visibility: who attributes what slice of the delivered value. Imbalance exposure: systematic exposure under each rule preset vs baseline.

P1: enclave-aggregated value-stack visibility + settlement-grade imbalance exposure.
Evidence ladder · how every figure is graded
synthetic
Kernel run on synthetic cohorts; no real partner data
Achievable bar · pathway tile
modelled
A real rule-set from CFR / policy text, modelled by the kernel
Designed bar · CFR-actions tile
attested
Confidential-compute aggregate; cryptographic attestation; never raw partner data
Coordinated bar (gated to P1)
measured
Shadow-mode forecast vs activation, settlement-grade
Delivered bar (gated to P1)
Data sources

Feedback on the measurement methodology: scoreboard-feedback@enleashed.tech · This is a neutral measurement facility, not a vendor product.