Research inputs
NESO balancing & constraint costs · ESO whole-system flex benefit · CP30 target · DFS performance data · DESNZ Clean Flexibility Roadmap.
INDICATIVE PROTOTYPE · figures pending NUMBERS v2.2 sign-off · internal — not for external release
Workstream 1Value
at stake
at stake
Scoping question
How big is the coordination pool, how does it move across 2026 → 2030, and how much of it is realistic to capture under different worlds?
Method
Five sourced pools sized at three horizons (2026 / 2027 / 2030); five scenario stress tests; portfolio-coverage overlay shows the realistic enleashed slice.
Value map · v4
Five pools. Three horizons. One realistic slice.
Most value maps quote one big number for one year and stop. This one shows five distinct value pools moving across three horizons (2026 → 2030), stress-tested under five scenarios, with a portfolio-coverage overlay showing the slice Enleashed can realistically address.
Macro pool sizes are sourced (NESO/ESO/DESNZ — see ledger). Scenario multipliers and the portfolio-coverage curve are Enleashed's analysis, pending NUMBERS v2.2 sign-off. F1: no GB curtailment magnitudes are quoted; the curtailment row tracks relative change only.
Pools at horizon · click a pool to highlight it
Balancing
£2.70bn
2026 · Base
Constraints
£1.70bn
2026 · Base
Whole-system flex benefit
£3.20bn
2026 · Base
Customer benefit (retail)
£0.45bn
2026 · Base
Curtailment reduction (relative)
1.00×
2026 · Base
Annual coordination value at stake — five pools, by year
2026 · Base
Stress test the year & scenario
Horizon year2026
ScenarioBase
Total pool at 2026£8.05bn/yr
Realistic coverage42%
Realistic £-deliverable£3.38bn/yr
Curtailment index1.00× (no GB magnitude)
Source ledger · every figure with its provenance
Macro pools · sourced; multipliers & coverage curve · Enleashed analysis
measured · published · indicative · synthetic| Quantity | Value | Source & method |
|---|---|---|
| Balancing — 2024/25 | £2.7bn published | NESO 2025 Annual Balancing Costs Report (£1.7bn constraints + balancing services). |
| Constraints — 2024/25 | £1.7bn published | NESO 2025 — constraint payment subset of balancing. |
| Whole-system flex benefit | £3.2–4.7bn/yr published | National Grid ESO 2022 — high-flex integration scenario. |
| EV-tariff customer benefit | £540/yr measured | Enleashed MVP backtest, 33 LV feeders, 2025. |
| AU coordination uplift (peer ref.) | 34% [AU] published | CSIRO trial — peer-reviewed; GB replication in progress; never stated as GB. |
| Realistic coverage 2030 | 60% indicative | Enleashed analysis — share moveable post-DSI MVP + retail engagement. |
| GB curtailment magnitude | [NEEDS-KEY] synthetic | F1 rule: no GB curtailment magnitude on this surface; index change only. |
+ expand methodology & assumptions